Australia hit HIV targets. First Nations people and migrant gay men didn't.

New Kirby Institute data show national success masking profound inequality in who gets tested, treated and diagnosed on time.

Told by Claire Lawson · 15 September 2026

Australia hit its HIV targets last year. That's the headline, and it's true, and it hides almost everything that matters.

There were 753 HIV diagnoses in 2025, down a quarter over the past decade and stable for the last three years, according to new data from the Kirby Institute at UNSW Sydney presented on Tuesday 15 September at the joint Australasian HIV&AIDS and Sexual and Reproductive Health Conferences in Melbourne. The country met the global 95-95-95 targets set by UNAIDS: 95% of people living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of those on treatment, 95% of those virally suppressed. On paper, it's a world-leading result.

But the numbers split open when you look at who's being reached and who's being left behind — and the gaps are getting wider, not narrower.

First Nations Australians: twice the rate, ten years running

There were 37 HIV diagnoses among First Nations Australians last year. That's the second-highest number in a decade, up from an average of 24 a year over the three years prior.

First Nations Australians were diagnosed at 1.9 times the rate of Australian-born non-Indigenous people in 2025, up from 1.6 in 2016. Read that again: the disparity is growing, not shrinking, even as national diagnoses fall.

"First Nations peoples remain almost twice as likely to be diagnosed with HIV than non-Indigenous Australians," said Robert Monaghan, who manages the Yandamanjang First Nations Health Research Program at the Kirby Institute. "This inequity is unacceptable. We know that HIV is preventable and treatable, so we need to ask why these disparities persist and, more importantly, what we can do differently."

The reasons are structural: discrimination within the health system, geographical barriers, inequitable access to care. The solutions require more than a campaign — they require culturally safe testing and treatment co-designed with First Nations communities, not delivered to them.

Late diagnoses: the invisible epidemic

A late diagnosis means someone may have been living with HIV for four or more years without knowing their status, often already experiencing HIV-related illness by the time they're tested. Nationally, one in three diagnoses in 2025 were late.

Among heterosexual men, that figure was 58% over the past five years. Among heterosexual women, 46%. Among gay and bisexual men born in Southeast Asia, 49% — almost twice the rate of Australian-born gay men, where late diagnosis sat at 23%.

"The proportion of late diagnoses among heterosexual people and gay and bisexual men born in Southeast Asia shows there are clear gaps in access to timely testing," said Dr Skye McGregor, the Kirby epidemiologist who led the report. "We need sustained investment in a range of culturally appropriate and accessible testing options, ensuring programs meet the needs of communities."

Late diagnosis is a health emergency for the individual — it means years of untreated illness and a higher risk of serious complications. It's also a public health failure: people who don't know their status can't access treatment, can't suppress the virus, and are more likely to transmit it.

Two epidemics, same country

Diagnoses among gay and bisexual men — still the group most affected by HIV in Australia — have fallen 36% over the past decade. That sounds like progress until you separate Australian-born men from overseas-born men.

Australian-born gay men: diagnoses nearly halved, from 442 in 2016 to 229 in 2025. Overseas-born gay men: diagnoses fell just 19%, from 316 to 255.

Just over half of all gay and bisexual men diagnosed with HIV in 2025 were born overseas. The prevention tools — PrEP, accessible testing, community health services — are reaching Australian-born men. They're not reaching everyone else at the same rate.

"Australia's prevention efforts are reaching some groups and missing others, making progress uneven across the board," said Professor Andrew Grulich, head of the HIV Epidemiology and Prevention Program at the Kirby Institute.

Scott Harlum, president of the National Association of People with HIV Australia, put it more bluntly: "We must eliminate the key risk period for overseas-born men who have sex with men who are new to Australia, which is that between the time they arrive in the country and when they become connected to care. We cannot leave them to navigate HIV, distress and risk alone."

What the targets don't measure

Australia met its targets. That matters — it means the system works when people can access it. But a national average is not a health outcome for the person who can't get to a clinic, who doesn't know where to get tested, who waits four years because no one asked.

The Kirby data don't just show success. They show exactly where the system is failing, and for whom, and by how much. First Nations Australians diagnosed at twice the rate. Overseas-born gay men waiting longer, testing later, missing the window when treatment works best. Heterosexual men and women — often assumed to be low-risk — diagnosed late more than half the time.

We have the tools. PrEP works. Testing works. Treatment works, and it works so well that people on effective treatment cannot transmit the virus. The question isn't whether we can eliminate HIV transmission in Australia. The question is whether we're willing to make sure everyone can reach the tools we already have.

Right now, the answer is no — not for everyone, not yet, not equally.

Correction, 27 September 2026: an earlier version said the figures were presented that day (it was 15 September) and that people diagnosed late had been living with HIV for four or more years; the report says they may have been. A repeat version of this story has been removed.